Population Change and Economic Growth Research Paper

Population Change and Economic Growth - Research Paper Example The instantaneous rate of growth of GDP is expressed as the sum of rates of growth of variables on the right hand side of the above equation; hence, logarithms are introduced in the equation. The rate of GDP per capita is thus expressed as: The base data for the study are taken from Statistics Canada National Income and Expenditure Accounts for GDP (available from 1961), and the population series from the Statcan (available from 1971). Both data series have been extended backwards from 1951 using "old-onto-new" splicing. The labor force source population, as defined in the labor force survey, is the non-institutional population of 15 years of age, or older. Based on the growth rate equation defined above, the data for half a century has been generated for historical analysis, and with which forecasts have been compared. Historical trends indicate that GDP growth rate was highest in 1960s touching 5.2%, and lowest in 1980s at 2.33%. The study forecasted GDP for 2001-2011 as 2.52, which is quite near to the actual of 2.7%, as reported in the World Fact Book for Canada (2008). A high GDP growth rate in 1960s is explained by the fact that baby boomers along with augmented female participation added to the workforce. During 1980s it is worth noting that both the labor workforce and employment rate declined. It is also of interest to note that the population growth along with labor force source population continued to decline since 1950s. By 1980s, the inflow of younger people joining the labor workforce and the participation rate of older people declined. The net immigration